The Pews are going to fall
As a faith leader, one of my responsibilities is keeping an eye on the spiritual landscape—not just in my community but across the country. People often have opinions about the state of faith in America, but hard data only comes in from time to time. Last week, the Pew Research Center released a major poll suggesting that the decades-long decline in Christian participation has finally slowed. More accurately, the rate of decline has declined. (I know, now I sound like I actually did well in college calculus.) The takeaway? Most of the people who were going to leave Christianity have already left, and churches may now be able to stabilize after three decades of dechurching.
But if you look closely at the data, it’s clear that this pause in decline is only temporary. We’re on the edge of a free fall. The majority of religious participants are 55 and older, with a significant portion in their 80s. Meanwhile, younger generations aren’t stepping in to fill the ranks. In other words, the stage is set for Christianity to experience a massive decline in the next 10 years. It’s hard to overstate how big this shift will be and how it will reshape American politics and public life. In terms of religion in America, this isn’t just a shift—it’s more like a mass extinction event. Places of worship won’t necessarily close, but entire branches of the American faith tradition may disappear.
I know many people in Seattle don’t think much about this. Some even assume that all Christians are just hardcore Trump supporters and say, “Good riddance.” But here’s the thing—Christian faith organizations will also disappear. That means fewer volunteers running food pantries, soup kitchens, and homeless outreach programs. Many small, neighborhood-based churches that offer food, clothing, and community support will shut down. Like them or not, churches often serve as gathering places in times of crisis and sorrow, providing for the most vulnerable. Sure, faith communities don’t always agree, and sometimes they drive each other up the wall with their debates. But losing them? That’s going to leave a real gap in our communities.
That said, when something dies in an ecosystem, it creates space for something new. So, I wonder—what might grow in place of what’s disappearing? Could something else rise up that brings more hope and life to our neighborhoods in Seattle? I don’t have the answer, but it’s something worth thinking about.